Builders increased construction of single and multi-family homes in April which made U.S. housing starts rise more than anticipated.
The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that groundbreaking had increased 6.6% to an adjusted annual pace of 1.17 million units. For comparison, economists had predicted housing starts to be at a 1.13 million unit pace for last month.
This combined with strong April retail sales supports the view that the economy is gaining momentum early on in the second quarter after a slow first. The strong labor market is opening up more employment opportunities which is sustaining the housing market by boosting household formation.
The largest segment of the market is single family housing.
Overall, this increased 3.3% in April to a 778,000 unit pace.
Single family housing starts in the South soared 9% which is the highest since December 2007.
Single family housing starts in the Midwest jumped 12.8%.
Housing starts for multi-family units rose 13.9%, up to a 394,000 unit pace.
In April building permits jumped 3.6%, a 1.12 million unit rate.
Single family home construction permits strengthened by 1.5%, and multi-family building permits were up by an astounding 8%.
Real Estate Could Be Dominant Asset Class This Decade
If you own real estate, you could be in for a decade of prosperity, says Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Ben Carlson.
After plunging during the Great Recession, homeownership rates are once again steadily climbing higher. This made Carlson believe that “There is a real possibility real estate could be one of the dominant assets of the 2020s.”
He acknowledges that many view owning a home as a terrible investment.
“There’s certainly an argument to be made for that claim when you consider all of the ancillary costs associated with homeownership — property taxes, upkeep, maintenance, insurance, renovations, landscaping, closing costs, etc. Owning a home involves more consumption than almost any investment on the planet,” says Carlson.
There’s data backing up that view, says Carlson, citing the Shiller home price index over the last 100+ years.
“From 1900 through 1996, the total real return for U.S. housing was 10.7%. That’s an annualized gain of 0.1% over the rate of inflation for 97 years! Then from 1997-2019, real housing prices were up 57% or around 2% per year. And those numbers include the fallout from the housing boom and bust.”
No doubt, real estate has lagged other asset classes of late.
Carlson, however, says there are four distinct reasons that he expects real estate to outperform for the rest of the decade.
1. Millennials — Even though the millennial generation is slower to hit milestones than previous generations, Carlson argues that they will eventually get around to accomplishing those milestones, like buying a house.
“Young people are settling down later in life because they are going to school for longer…But millennials were going to begin doing adult things eventually. That means buying houses, even if it comes later in life than it did for their parents. Millennials are now the biggest demographic in the country and will dominate the most common ages in the country for years to come.”
2. Interest rates — Interest rates are historically low, making houses more affordable.
“Lower borrowing rates have kept things more affordable than most people realize,” says Carlson. “If the Fed has their way it sounds like rates are going to stay low for a number of years.
3. Supply — There likely aren’t enough homes available to meet demand.
“The hangover from the bursting of the 2000s housing bubble is still being felt when it comes to the supply of homes in this country,” Carlson said. “New single-family homes for sale are finally on the rise but are still barely at the levels seen in the early-2000s while existing home inventories basically went nowhere for the entire 2010s.”
He says if new home construction doesn’t keep pace with demand, existing home prices will surge higher.
“If builders don’t start making more homes available, prices will keep rising to account for the increase in demand.”
4. Work from home — a massive shift that was sped up by the pandemic.
“There could still be a nasty transition period as employers and employees alike realize they don’t all need to live and work in big cities to be productive,” Carlson said. “Untethering employees from a specific location will allow them to move to more cost-effective areas and potentially change the housing dynamics for a large group of people.”
He doesn’t believe there will be a “death of big cities” like many are predicting. However, he does think that the pandemic has dramatically shifted employers and employee expectations for where work needs to occur. And if remote work becomes the norm, it could dramatically shift housing needs of millions of workers.
Coldwell Banker Reports Most Number of $1 Million+ Transactions Worldwide in 2019
Coldwell Banker affiliated agents conducted more transactions of homes priced at $1 million+ than any other national real estate brand in 2019.
MADISON, N.J., March 5, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — Today, Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC, a Realogy (NYSE: RLGY) brand, announced that Coldwell Banker® affiliated agents conducted approximately 27,600 transactions of homes priced at $1 million or more in 2019, more than any other national real estate brand. On average in 2019, this equates to approximately $144.4 million in sales every day by the Coldwell Banker brand in $1 million or more luxury homes, with an average sales price of $1.9 million.
All $1 million+ properties listed with a Coldwell Banker affiliated agent have access to a best in class suite of marketing tools under the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury® program. Affiliated agents in this program are equipped with a wealth of knowledge and resources to succeed in a competitive luxury market. These resources include: the brand’s distinguished luxury certification course; an alliance with the Institute of Luxury Home Marketing, which provides industry insights for the program’s existing research assets like The Report: 2020 Global Luxury Market Insights, A Look At Wealth: Millennial Millionaires; and a best-in-class domestic syndication package for luxury properties plus international syndication of $2 million+ listings through the program’s relationship with List Hub Global.
Ricardo Rodriguez, the top-producing Global Luxury Property Specialist with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Boston, Mass., takes pride in the brands tools like “The Report,” that help him stay up to date on industry trends. He commends the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury program for always making the latest industry data easily available and believes that this knowledge has given him a winning edge with clients.
Another powerhouse real estate group, The Kehrig Team, made the jump from Compass to Coldwell Banker Real Estate in early 2020 for the brand’s committed leadership and focus on agent success.
Click to Tweet: We’re the best in the business for another year in a row! @ColdwellBanker affiliated agents conducted approximately 27,595 transactions of homes priced $1 million+, in 2019, more than any other national real estate brand https://blog.coldwellbanker.com/1-million-transactions-2019/
“Knowledge is power. Industry professionals need access to the best tools to help them be successful, especially in today’s competitive landscape. As it enters its fourth year, the continued growth of the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Program can be attributed to our affiliated agents’ tenacity for learning, impeccable service to clients, and support from all levels of leadership. We’re excited to help create opportunities for Coldwell Banker Luxury Property Specialists and their high net worth clients.”
– Ryan Gorman, president and CEO of Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC
“The Coldwell Banker Global Luxury® program stands out as a premier marketing program for Coldwell Banker Real Estate, connecting our affiliated agents to the most prestigious and noteworthy clientele. Now more than ever, the talent in the Coldwell Banker network continues to show its expertise and value. Understanding the complexities of selling high-end homes is a skill that few possess – but time and again our agents prove their dedication to the details and exemplify what it means to be service-oriented.”
– Craig Hogan, vice president of luxury for Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC
If you would like to know more about what it means to be a Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Specialist, visit cbglcareers.com.
About Coldwell Banker Global Luxury®
The Coldwell Banker Global Luxury® program legacy traces its roots to 1933 and has been a world leader in luxury real estate since. Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Property Specialists are an exclusive group within the Coldwell Banker organization, making up under ten percent of independent sales associates affiliated with the brand worldwide. Coldwell Banker affiliated agents conducted 27,595 transactions of homes priced at $1 million or more in 2019, more than any other national real estate brand. This equates to $144.4 million in sales every day with an average sales price of $1.9 million in this category. Coldwell Banker, the Coldwell Banker logo Coldwell Banker Global Luxury and the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury logo are registered marks owned by Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Each franchise is independently owned and operated.
About Realogy Holdings Corp.
Realogy Holdings Corp. (NYSE: RLGY) is the leading and most integrated provider of U.S. residential real estate services, encompassing franchise, brokerage, and title and settlement businesses as well as a mortgage joint venture. Realogy’s diverse brand portfolio includes some of the most recognized names in real estate: Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate, CENTURY 21®, Coldwell Banker®, Coldwell Banker Commercial®, Corcoran®, ERA®, and Sotheby’s International Realty®. Using innovative technology, data and marketing products, best-in-class learning and support services, and high-quality lead generation programs, Realogy fuels the productivity of independent sales agents, helping them build stronger businesses and best serve today’s consumers. Realogy’s affiliated brokerages operate around the world with approximately 190,000 independent sales agents in the United States and more than 112,000 independent sales agents in 113 other countries and territories. Recognized for nine consecutive years as one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies, Realogy has also been designated a Great Place to Work and one of Forbes’ Best Employers for Diversity. Realogy is headquartered in Madison, New Jersey.
|Athena Snow||Rachel Braude|
|Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC||G&S for Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC|
|[email protected]||[email protected]|
SOURCE Coldwell Banker Global Luxury
U.S. Home Flipping Increases To Eight-Year High In 2019 While Returns Drop To Eight-Year Low
IRVINE, Calif., March 5, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database and first property data provider of Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), today released its year-end 2019 U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 245,864 single family homes and condos in the United States were flipped in 2019, up 2 percent from 2018 to the highest point since 2006.
The number of homes flipped in 2019 represented 6.2 percent of all home sales in the nation during the year, an 8-year high. That was up from 5.8 percent of all home sales in 2018 and from 5.7 percent in 2017.
While flipping activity rose, profit margins continued dropping. Homes flipped in 2019 typically generated a gross profit of $62,900 nationwide (the difference between the median sales price and the median paid by investors), down 3.2 percent from $65,000 in 2018 year and 6 percent from the post-recession peak of $66,899 in 2017.
“Home-flipping profits across the U.S. dropped again in 2019 as the business of buying and selling houses absorbed its worst year since the housing market was mired in the fallout from the Great Recession. This happened as the cost of buying properties continued to rise faster than gains on resale,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “That’s not to say that the home-flipping industry is tanking or losing its allure for investors because home flipping rates are higher than they’ve been in eight years. But profits did continue to decline again for investors.”
The typical gross flipping profit of $62,900 translated into a 40.6 percent return on investment compared to the original acquisition price. That was down from a 45.8 percent gross flipping ROI in 2018 and down from 51.4 percent ROI in 2017. The latest typical return on home flips stood at the lowest point since 2011.
“While the gross profit figures do not include the cost of rehabbing the properties, which will serve to reduce profitability, the measure itself is something that Roc Capital focuses on heavily in its underwriting process. Roc delinquency figures have remained static year over year, however we do see a broad increase in nationwide lis pendens filings by lenders in the fix and flip space that exceeds the volume growth evident in this report,” said Maksim Stavinsky, co-founder and COO of Roc Capital.
“For 2019, the YoY increase in lis pendens filings in this space was greater than 50 percent, with most of that increase occurring in the second half of the year, and the first two months of 2020 shows a further 30 percent or greater increase in lis pendens filings over 2019. While actual losses from delinquencies have been low across the space, historically rising delinquencies have been a precursor to losses, so prudent underwriting is more important than ever in this environment.”
Home flipping rates up in 64 percent of local markets
Home flips as a portion of all home sales increased from 2018 to 2019 in 122 of the 190 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report (64.2 percent). The largest annual increases in the home flipping rate came in Laredo, TX (up 103.5 percent); Raleigh, NC (up 59.8 percent); Charlotte, NC (up 44.1 percent); Fort Smith, AR (up 43.2 percent) and Columbus, GA (up 40.5 percent). Metro areas qualified for the report if they had a population of at least 200,000 and at least 100 home flips in 2019.
Aside from Raleigh, NC, and Charlotte, NC, the biggest annual flipping-rate increases in MSAs with a population of 1 million or more were in Atlanta, GA (up 39.1 percent); San Antonio, TX (up 37.2 percent) and Tucson, AZ (up 34.2 percent).
The biggest decrease in annual flipping rates among MSAs with a population of 1 million or more were in Seattle, WA (down 16.9 percent); Indianapolis, IN (down 9.1 percent); Grand Rapids, MI (down 8.0 percent); Rochester, NY (down 5.9 percent) and Baltimore, MD (down 4.8 percent).
Home flips purchased with financing dip while those bought with cash climb
Nationally, the percentage of flipped homes purchased with financing dipped in 2019 to 43.8 percent, from 45.9 percent in 2018, but was up from 42.9 percent two years ago. Meanwhile, 56.2 percent of homes flipped in 2019 were bought with all-cash, up from 54.1 percent in 2018, but down from 57.1 percent in 2017.
Among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of 1 million or more and sufficient data to analyze, those with the highest percentage of flips purchased with financing in 2019 included Virginia Beach, VA (67.6 percent); Seattle, WA (55.9 percent); San Diego, CA (53.7 percent); Boston, MA (53.6 percent) and San Francisco, CA (52.9 percent).
Typical home flipping returns drop closer to post-Recession low points
Homes flipped in 2019 were sold for a median price of $217,900, with a gross flipping profit of $62,900 above the median purchase price of $155,000. That gross-profit figure was down from $65,000 in 2018 and from $66,899 in 2017. With purchase prices rising faster than profits on investor-bought homes, the 40.6 percent return on median sales prices versus purchase prices was down from 45.8 percent in 2018 and from the post-Recession peak of 51.7 percent in 2016.
Among the 53 markets with a population of 1 million or more, those that saw the smallest gross flipping profits in 2019 included Raleigh, NC ($23,000); San Antonio, TX ($31,756); Phoenix, AZ ($33,641); Las Vegas, NV ($34,300) and Houston, TX ($36,375).
In those same markets, the lowest 2019 returns on investment on the typical sales were in Raleigh, NC (10.5 percent); Austin, TX (13.7 percent); Las Vegas, NV (14.7 percent); Phoenix, AZ (15.1 percent) and Dallas, TX (18.7 percent).
Average time to flip nationwide is 178 days
Home flippers who sold homes in 2019 took an average of 178 days to complete the flips, down slightly from an average of 179 days for homes flipped in 2018.
Percent of flipped homes sold to FHA buyers increases
Of the 245,864 U.S. homes flipped in 2019, 14.4 percent were sold to buyers using a loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), up from 13.1 percent in 2018, but down from 16.2 percent in 2017.
Among the 190 metro areas with a population of at least 200,000 and at least 100 home flips in 2019, those with the highest percentage of 2019 home flips sold to FHA buyers — typically first-time homebuyers — were Stockton, CA (29.9 percent); Merced, CA (27.7 percent); Visalia, CA (27.4 percent); York, PA (27.4 percent) and Lakeland, FL (26.4 percent).
Thirty-four counties had a home flipping rate of at least 10 percent
Among 678 counties with at least 50 home flips in 2019, there were 34 counties where home flips accounted for at least 10 percent of all home sales last year. The top five were Portsmouth City/County, VA, in the Virginia Beach metro area (13.9 percent); Prince George’s County, MD, in the Washington, D.C., metro area (13.5 percent); Macon County, TN , in the Nashville metro area (13.4 percent); Shelby County, TN, in the Memphis metro area (12.5 percent) and Clayton County, GA, in the Atlanta metro area (12.3 percent).
Nine zip codes had a home flipping rate of at least 25 percent
Among 6,675 U.S. zip codes with a population of 5,000 or more and at least 10 home flips in 2019, there were nine zip codes where flips accounted for at least 25 percent of all home sales last year. The top five were 78538 in Hidalgo County (McAllen), TX (34.3 percent); 35005 in Jefferson County (Birmingham), AL (29.1 percent); 93212 in Kings County, CA (south of Fresno) (27.8 percent); 38109 in Shelby County (Memphis), TN (27.3 percent) and 10467 in Bronx County, NY, (part of New York City) (26.3 percent).
High-level takeaways from the fourth-quarter 2019 dataset:
- The 56,945 home flips in the fourth quarter of 2019 were completed by 24,096 investors, a ratio of 2.36 flips per investor.
- The share of homes flipped in the fourth quarter of 2019 that were purchased by investors with financing represented 39.6 percent of all homes flipped in the quarter, down from 44.2 percent in the previous quarter and from 45.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, to a three-year low.
- The median gross flipping profit on home flips in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $62,500, which represented an average 39.1 percent return on investment (percentage of original purchase price), down from 40.1 percent in the previous quarter, to an eight-year low.
- Home flips completed in the fourth quarter of 2019 took an average of 170 days, down from 174 days in the fourth quarter of 2018.
ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed sales deed data for this report. A single-family home or condo flip was any arms-length transaction that occurred in the quarter where a previous arms-length transaction on the same property had occurred within the last 12 months. The average gross flipping profit is the difference between the purchase price and the flipped price (not including rehab costs and other expenses incurred, which flipping veterans estimate typically run between 20 percent and 33 percent of the property’s after repair value). Gross flipping return on investment was calculated by dividing the gross flipping profit by the first sale (purchase) price.
About ATTOM Data Solutions
ATTOM Data Solutions provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation’s population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 9TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, marketing lists, match & append and introducing the first property data delivery solution, a cloud-based data platform that streamlines data management – Data-as-a-Service (DaaS).
Data and Report Licensing:
SOURCE ATTOM Data Solutions
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