Peter Hug, head of the precious metal division at Kitco, believes the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates at near-zero through at least 2023 is bullish for precious metals and particularly gold. He also mentioned the road platinum can head to by the year’s end.
“About three Fed meetings ago they indicated they would hold rates at pretty much zero through the end of 2021 into early ‘22, today they’ve extended that by an additional year, there have been some analysts that are suspecting they will keep rates at zero right through 2024, so we’ve got another almost four years of zero interest rates to look forward to,” said Hug.
“The Fed being a bit more accommodative on inflation indicates to me that it’s a very positive environment for hard assets in general but I think the metals as well will continue to move higher over the next period of time based on the dovishness of the Fed, global central banks and the uncertainty of the US election coming up in about six weeks.”
The State of the Gold and Silver Markets
Hug said the current consolidation phase is a great sign of the overall health of the gold and silver markets. This comes after the frenzy in the gold and silver markets about a month ago.
“The market has been consolidating, which is a very good sign, especially for gold. Gold has been consolidating between our support level of 1925 and 1975 for the better part of two weeks. Silver seems to be between $26.50 – $27.50 range and consolidating as well. The fact that people are not selling into a market that is as frenetic as it was a month or six weeks ago, indicates to me that this market is setting up for the next leg higher once we get through this consolidation phase.”
Availability and Premiums
The gold and silver markets are taking a bit of a breather and the mania has slowed a bit. With this, Hug said the availability of gold and silver coins is getting better. He said premiums are coming down as well.
“On the gold and silver side, dealers are starting to show inventory. That’s not a result of increased production, it’s more a result because of this consolidation phase, retail investors have started to pull back on the markets so there’s not as much buying frenzy in the physical space right now, I think that changes if gold gets north of $2,000 again. But this consolidation of $50 range in gold and the $1, $1.50 range in silver has basically dried up the demand at these levels.”
“So production is still coming on board and dealers are starting to build inventory. And because of that you are seeing premiums come down. Silver maple leafs you can get, again, depending on quantity, somewhere between $5-6 over spot, Eagles are down somewhere between $5-7 over spot, so you are starting to see as this market stays sideways and we don’t see another rush into the buying side from the retail investor, you give it another 2-4 weeks and I think there will be reasonable inventory on the market and premiums should come down.”
Volatility to Return Soon?
Hug said that if you are looking to acquire gold and silver coins, you shouldn’t wait long as we could see volatility return very soon.
“I caution that past October 15 the market is going to be very volatile as we go into the election.”
Other than gold or silver, Hug sees a huge opportunity in the platinum space. There, he expects prices to climb 50% by the end of the year.
“I’m constructive platinum. It is also consolidating in the $900-950 range, but I do anticipate platinum to be north of $1000 and then look to $1200 possibly $1400 before year end.”