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How the Future of Travel Looks in 2040

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How the Future of Travel Looks in 2040
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By the year 2040, international travel will be a faster, easier and more ecologically sustainable activity than ever before, according to a report commissioned by Allianz Partners to help prepare for the travel-related needs of their customers in the future. Allianz Partners is a world leader in B2B2C assistance and insurance solutions, delivering global protection and care, and offers dedicated travel insurance services through the Allianz Travel brand.

Authored by internationally renowned futurologist, Ray Hammond, ‘The World in 2040’ futurology series presents likely future developments and trends that will impact international travel and the traveler experience over the next 20 years. The report identifies key trends which will, collectively, revolutionize the travel landscape by 2040:

1. Virtual & Augmented Reality

Multi-sensory virtual reality technology will allow armchair travel planners to ‘step into’ virtual hotel rooms, visit street carnivals, explore museums or walk into restaurants, from the comfort of their own living room. This trend is expected to fuel an appetite for more real-life travel, rather than hinder it.

2. Instant check-in thanks to new technology

Facial pattern recognition systems are already in experimental use at airports and within 20 years, computer systems that can reliably identify your face will be in widespread use to check-in seamlessly.

3. Hotel software assistants

While some luxury hotels will greet their guests with a human face, many business and budget hotels will use automated check-in and guidance to rooms provided by software assistants. Some hotels will even provide robotic baggage carriers to move luggage.

4. Super-fast trains

Cross-border train journeys will be smoother and much improved in many parts of the world. Computer networks and the ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT) will manage national and international rail networks, allowing trains to run faster and closer together. Train speed will also increase on most rail networks, with most high-speed trains running at speeds above 125 mph.

5. On-site 3D clothes printing

In 2040, it will be possible to send your measurements to your hotel in advance of your arrival and heavy or bulky clothes (e.g. raincoats or shoes) will have been printed out to await your arrival, reducing the amount of luggage the tourist of 2040 will have to transport. The low cost of 3D printed garments means travelers will be able to leave the clothes behind for local recycling.

6. Sustainable cruises

Cruise ships will be far more environmentally friendly than today’s giant ocean liners. Vessels will be powered by Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), a light fossil fuel with almost no greenhouse gas emissions, transforming cruise vacations into one of the greenest ways to travel the world. The range of cruise destinations will also continue to grow, with Asia proving particularly fertile ground.

7. Space as a regular destination

For some travelers in 2040, the world may not be enough as it may not offer a sufficiently large choice of destinations. By that time, it’s likely that tourists will be flying to and from the Moon on a regular basis as they seek the experience of seeing the Earth from space.

Commenting on the transformation expected for travelers by 2040, Ray Hammond said: “The face of travel as we know it will change dramatically over the next 20 years. Airline passenger numbers are forecast to double by that time and the travel industry is coming under increasing pressure from travelers for faster and more efficient travel experiences. By 2040, personal software assistants will be sufficiently intelligent to help travelers book their trips online and they will be able to cope with all the complexities of multi-destination travel planning in order to meet the needs of the traveler. Travel will also become more about rejuvenation, adventure, fulfillment and learning new skills rather than just ticking off places to see from a list.”

Speaking about the impact of the report for the business, Joe Mason, Chief Marketing Officer at Allianz Partners, Travel Line of Business, said: “The ‘Future Travel Experience’ report allows Allianz Partners to foresee the trends and changes in travel so we can work towards redefining travel insurance. This includes the delivery of new innovative products and services, while also building more value for our partners and customers. We are already shifting our focus from travel insurance to travel protection as we move from a reactive customer service approach to a more proactive care approach. Our customers will benefit from this shift through more responsive claims processes, more sophisticated mobile solutions, and a greater sense of safety, security, and overall well-being when Allianz Partners accompanies them throughout their journeys.

“Though some aspects of travel should be much less stressful by the year 2040, there will still be some familiar risks for travelers to contend with, along with some new ones. Unforeseen trip cancelations, delays and emergencies abroad will continue to happen, meaning that travelers will continue to need travel protection and assistance services to travel with peace of mind.”

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Tech Companies Report Record Earnings, See $200 Billion Added To Market Cap

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Tech Companies Report Record Earnings, See $200 Billion Added To Market Cap

A day after their CEO’s spent five-and-a-half-hour-long testifying at a congressional hearing on anticompetitive practices, four of the largest tech companies in the world grew even larger after each reported strong earnings in the second quarter.

Yesterday alone, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) and Facebook added about $200 billion to their cumulative market cap after they announced earnings. This shows just how dominant each business is. Combined the companies are now valued at more than $5 trillion.

Apple

Apple reported more than $11 billion in earnings despite shutting down most of their retail stores during the pandemic. On the earnings call the tech company reported strong demand for the smaller, lower-cost iPhone 11. It also reported a surge in sales for the iPad and Mac products.

“Mac and iPad, these are productivity tools that people are using to stay engaged with their work or stay engaged with their schoolwork,” Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said during the call. “And we believe we’re going to have a strong back-to-school season sitting here today, it certainly looks like that.”

The company also surprised analysts during the call by announcing a 4-for-1 stock split. Investors who currently have shares will receive three additional shares for every one they own. The share price is also adjusted down to roughly 25% of the current price, helping to make shares more affordable.

Amazon

Tens of millions of Americans stuck at home during the shelter-at-home restrictions. With this, Amazon was perhaps the biggest winner and reported a record net income last quarter. On the earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said that online grocery sales had tripled in the quarter and video streaming had doubled from a year ago. The company also saw an increase in its cloud computing business.

Alphabet (Google)

Alphabet reported earnings and net income in line with expectations. However, it announced the tech company’s first-ever drop in revenue for display ads on Google.

“The macroeconomic environment costs by the pandemic created headwinds for our business,” Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai said on the call, but said that indications in the third quarter are a stabilization in users and expectations are for revenue to return as well. “This was true across most of our advertising verticals and geographies. Of course, the economic climate remains fragile.”

Facebook

Facebook, though, had the biggest after-hours jump in its stock price after it beat Wall Street expectations by topping $5 billion in quarterly profit. Also, Facebook said that its traffic grew during the pandemic, with more people at home online, but that the average price per ad declined due to the economic fallout of COVID-19.

“Facebook has been a lifeline of economic activity,” said Chief Financial Officer David Wehner on the earnings call. Also, the company announced $5 billion in quarterly profit.

It said that with more people at home all day due to the pandemic site traffic grew, but like Alphabet, saw a decrease in the average price per ad due to the economic fallout of COVID-19.

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7 Risks For Tesla Investors As Stock Price Soars

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7 Risks For Tesla Investors As Stock Price Soars

Tesla, led by celebrity-CEO Elon Musk, has seen its share price climb from $361 on March 18 to an eye-watering high of $1,546 on July 15.

Along the way, the company has been forced to shut down its factory. Musk has threatened to move the factory out of California. The prices of some of its models have been slashed due to a lack of demand. Also, deliveries last quarter were well below projections (but above Musk’s walked-back estimate).

And yet, the share price climbed 328%., making Tesla the most valuable car maker on the planet.

That has at least one longtime observer saying the stock is in a bubble and it will burst soon.

Mark Hulbert, a regular columnist for MarketWatch and the founder of the Hulbert Digest, said in a recent article, “Tesla is a bubble that is going to pop.”

Hulbert points out a study by three Harvard researchers that the more a stock has gained over the recent past, the greater the odds of a crash. With Tesla outpacing the S&P 500 by 324 percentage points over the last two years. Based on the Harvard study (which stopped calculations at 150 basis points) there’s a greater than 80% chance that Tesla’s stock will drop by at least 40% in the next two years.

But those aren’t the only headwinds facing Tesla right now.

Michael Brush, publisher of the Brush Up On Stocks newsletter, says there are seven risks for investors in Tesla right now.

Risk #1: The stock price has gotten too far ahead of fundamentals

Tesla trades at 7.8x forward 12-month revenue, says Todd Lowenstein, an equity strategist at The Private Bank at Union Bank. Compare that to around 0.2 or less for General Motors and Ford, who produce millions of more cars than Tesla every year.

“Tesla strikes me as more speculation than investing at these prices,” says Lowenstein, “It’s pricing in not only massive market-share gains and flawless execution, but world domination.”

Robert Bacarella, who manages the Monetta Fund, added “The stock is not trading on a multiple of today’s or tomorrow’s earnings. It is trading on a multiple of Elon Musk’s dreams.”

Risk #2: Tesla raises more money

With the share price in the stratosphere, it’s widely expected that Elon will raise more capital to shore up the balance sheet. Depending on how much money he chooses to raise, and at what price, current shareholders could be heavily diluted.

Risk #3: The Electric Vehicle market is in a bubble

“We are in a hot market right now,” says Shawn Kim, a research analyst at Gabelli Funds. Kim also thinks several of these companies are just speculative bets. “There is a bit of exuberance in the sector.” If the EV bubble pops, Tesla goes right along with it.

Risk #4: Tesla needs to execute flawlessly

Tesla is forever running around putting out fires. The Chinese factory was reportedly shut down for a while because it ran out of parts to build cars. Additionally, owners have reported missing parts of mismatched parts after taking delivery. But it might be Musk’s promise of “Level 5” autonomous driving that might knock the company down.

“Autonomous driving is one of the toughest problems in artificial intelligence,” cautions Kim. “Maybe Musk is not that close, because it is such a difficult problem.”

Risk #5: S&P 500 inclusion is priced in. What if they don’t get added?

A lot of investors have piled into Tesla thinking it will get a boost if it gets added to the S&P 500 as index funds will have to add it. The idea has been discussed so much it is probably priced into the stock, says Kim.

Risk #6: The overall market feels ‘toppy’

If the tides change and suddenly the market starts dropping, “frothy” stocks like Tesla will get hit hard.

Risk #7: Musk’s hubris

Musk recently announced that Tesla would sell “red satin short-shorts with gold trim” to mock the short-sellers betting against the stock. That’s typically not a good idea and shows too much hubris.

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‘Dumb Money’ Pushing Tech Stocks Higher, But That Could End Soon

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‘Dumb Money’ Pushing Tech Stocks Higher, But That Could End Soon

Tech stocks have been the unequivocal winner in the stock market rally since the late-March lows. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both climbed 43% off their lows, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has surged 53% from its lows.

However, two seemingly innocuous events in the last few days may indicate that the bull market has petered out. With this, we are due for a large correction in the index.

The First Event

The first event occurred on Monday. The Nasdaq climbed roughly 2% it managed to set a new intraday record high. However, the index then fell to more than 4%, closing the day with a 2.1% loss.

According to analysts at Bespoke Investment Group, the index setting an intraday record high and then closing at a loss is rare. Their research shows it has only occurred twice prior to Monday: January 24 and March 7, 2000.

“And although the Nasdaq was up the following day both times, you don’t need us to remind you what happened over the long-term from there,” the Bespoke analysts wrote in a recent report, alluding to the significant market correction from March through May of 2000.

Jason Goepfert, head of SentimentTrader and founder of independent investment research firm Sundial Capital Research, says that isn’t the only odd occurrence in the markets right now.

The Second Event

He points out the second event, which is the measure of volatility for Nasdaq, the Cboe Nasdaq Volatility Index, or VXN, is climbing alongside the Nasdaq-100. The Nasdaq-100 consists of the 100 biggest members of the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite.

The volatility gauges, like VXN, measure expectations for coming volatility and typically rise as the underlying index falls. Goepfert says the two moving higher in tandem has never occurred before.

Additionally, the VXN is trading higher than the volatility index for the S&P 500, the VIX. According to Bespoke Investment Group chief strategist Julian Emanuel, the VXN is trading at 37.61, a bit higher than the S&P 500’s volatility index, the VIX, which is trading at 29.52.

“As questions mount about whether the surge in VXN in recent weeks, uncharacteristic in a rising NDX tape, is indicative of a ‘blowoff’ or a ‘blowup’ or both we note that such ‘fast and furious’ shifts between VXN and VIX have tended to correspond to NDX absolute and relative underperformance, especially on a 3-month time frame,” Emanuel and analyst Michael Chu wrote in a recent note.

While not rare, there is another indication that the markets may be due for a correction. This indication is the level of confidence investors have right now. Retail investors, known as the “dumb money” are nearing their highest level of confidence since June 8. There are instances when the “dumb money” reaches an emotional extreme, either confidence or despair. When it happens, it’s generally a good indication that things will quickly swing back in the other direction.

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