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August 4th: The Calendar’s Most Bearish Day Since 1950



Days Without S&P 500 New High Chart

Days Without S&P 500 New High Chart

The overnight session began with a 4% rally in the after a change in margin rules forcing brokerages to ban short selling, however the bounce in China had little to none effect on worldwide markets as much of the European and Asian markets traded lower.

In the US, the day started with a light economic calendar and the (ESU15:CME) opened the regular session unchanged before rallying higher to yesterday’s open, failing there at the 2096 handle and thus proceeded to sell off 15 handles as the day went on before finding a low at 2081.50. However the bounce failed before reaching 10 handles and sold off in the closing minutes to end the day at 2083.00, down 8 handles on the day, just off the lows.

Taking part of the selling were again shares of Apple (NASDAQ:) which suffer more than a 4% decline intraday. Most notable news was Bloomberg reporting that Fed Governor Lockart suggested conditions were favorable for a rise in interest rates in September. Also, mentioned in the MrTopStep chat room was the 3200 price target on the by Birinyi Associates. Interestingly, it was noted that Birinyi placed a very optimistic bullish target on the just before the 2007 peak.

Tomorrow’s economic calendar is much more full as we head into another statistically weak biased day. Wednesday’s this year have closed down 66% of occasions including 8 of the last 13 for the S&P 500 (^GSPC:SNP). Intraday price action shows a series of lower highs since last Friday and should continue it’s choppy behavior into the number this Friday.

Tomorrow’s Notable Earnings: CBS Corp (NYSE:), CenturyLink Inc (NYSE:), Chesapeake Energy Corp (NYSE:), DISH Network Corporation (NASDAQ:), Dominion Resources Inc (NYSE:), Herbalife LTD (NYSE:), Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:), Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:), Rosetta Stone (NYSE:), Sunoco LP (NYSE:), Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:), Time Warner Inc (NYSE:), Vitamin Shoppe Inc (NYSE:), Wendy's Co (NASDAQ:)

Tomorrow’s Economic Calendar:

  • 7:00 AM ET
  • 8:15 AM ET
  • 8:30 AM ET
  • Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET
  • Treasury Refunding Announcement 8:30 AM ET
  • 3-Yr Note Announcement 8:30 AM ET
  • 10-Yr Note Announcement 8:30 AM ET
  • 30-Yr Bond Announcement 8:30 AM ET
  • 9:45 AM ET
  • 10:00 AM ET
  • 10:30 AM ET
  • Open: 2090.75
  • High: 2096.25
  • Low: 2081.50
  • Close: 2083.00
  • Volume: 1,321,017 total
  • MOC: 180 Million to Sell
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