Big Tech Winners and Losers: Trump Won the 2024 Election Edition

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The U.S. election results have stirred the stock market, particularly within the tech sector. As Trump returns to the White House, companies are assessing potential policy shifts and anticipating significant impacts. Trump’s past approach to Big Tech—including tariffs, deregulatory efforts, and complex relationships with tech giants—provides context for potential future actions. Here’s a breakdown of the likely Big Tech Winners and losers, based on Trump’s re-election.

Actual Winner: Tesla and Elon Musk

Tesla stands out as the biggest post-election winner, seeing the highest gains among Big Tech stocks following Trump’s victory. Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO, not only supported Trump’s re-election but actively endorsed him on X (formerly Twitter), driving a wave of investor confidence. Trump’s admiration for Musk, whom he called “a star” and “an amazing guy,” suggests potential support for Musk’s ventures. Even if Trump were to reduce electric vehicle (EV) incentives, Tesla’s market position and profitability could allow it to outpace competitors relying on subsidies. With Musk’s alignment with Trump’s administration, Tesla is poised to capitalize on this favorable environment, enhancing its leadership among Big Tech Winners.

Potential Winner: Google Set to Gain Despite Past Conflicts

Google’s post-election stock gains are noteworthy, especially given Trump’s history of criticizing the search giant. In the past, Trump alleged political bias at Google, yet the company’s recent gains suggest optimism about potential deregulation. Google’s parent company, Alphabet, could benefit if Trump’s administration eases antitrust scrutiny or reduces restrictions on emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles. Alphabet’s Waymo, its self-driving car division, might advance more rapidly if Trump reduces regulatory barriers, which could be favorable for the autonomous vehicle sector. This regulatory relief appears to have driven Google’s stock rally, as investors hope for a less restrictive environment under Trump’s leadership, marking it as one of the Big Tech winners.

Potential Winner: Crypto Sector is Positioned for Growth

The crypto industry could see substantial benefits under Trump’s second term. Trump, once skeptical of cryptocurrency, has since become an advocate, attracting support from crypto investors and pro-crypto interest groups. His administration may replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, known for a tough stance on crypto, with a pro-crypto figure, creating a friendlier regulatory landscape. This shift could encourage blockchain technology growth and attract further investments in digital assets. The initial post-election rise in crypto prices reflects the industry’s optimism about policy changes, setting the stage for potential long-term growth, positioning the crypto sector among the Big Tech winners.

Potential Loser: Apple Has Potential Setbacks Due to Trade Policy

Apple faces a challenging outlook due to its dependence on Chinese manufacturing. Trump’s tariff-focused trade policies, particularly targeting goods from China, pose a threat to Apple’s supply chain, potentially raising costs. Although Apple CEO Tim Cook maintained a positive relationship with Trump in the past, securing exemptions from earlier tariffs, broader tariffs could be harder to circumvent. This uncertainty has already impacted Apple’s stock performance, which posted the smallest gains among Big Tech stocks following the election. Investors are concerned that increased tariffs could disrupt Apple’s supply chain and erode its profitability, placing it among potential losers in the Big Tech landscape.

Potential Loser: Amazon’s Margins Under Pressure

Amazon may encounter similar difficulties under Trump’s policies. A proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports would have a notable impact, as Amazon relies heavily on imported goods. Known for absorbing costs to maintain competitive prices, Amazon could see its margins pressured if tariffs increase. Additionally, Trump’s strained relationship with Amazon founder Jeff Bezos may add further challenges, particularly in terms of government contracts or regulatory scrutiny. These factors have led to cautious investor sentiment around Amazon, as maintaining profitability could become more challenging if Trump enforces his proposed trade measures.

Potential Loser: Meta is Facing Political Headwinds

Meta, formerly Facebook, is dealing with a strained relationship with Trump, who has accused the company of political bias. Trump has criticized CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s involvement in voter initiatives, suggesting it contributed to Democratic gains. These tensions create a “political overhang” for Meta, which could face heightened scrutiny or unfavorable policies under Trump’s administration. Although Meta saw a slight stock increase after the election, investor caution remains, reflecting concerns over how Meta will navigate potential conflicts with the administration and manage its public image under scrutiny.

Potential Winner: Social Media Shifts Right

The social media landscape may shift as companies recalibrate to align with Trump’s administration. Musk’s X platform has already shown strong support for Trump, and other social media platforms may similarly adjust policies to avoid confrontations with the new administration. Meta, in particular, is likely to re-evaluate its content moderation policies to strike a balance and avoid political backlash. This shift could lead to a more conservative approach in social media governance, affecting user experiences and shaping future interactions across platforms.

Potential Winner: Crypto and AI: Poised for Expansion

Both crypto and artificial intelligence are well-positioned for growth under Trump’s administration. Trump’s new support for crypto aligns with industry interests, while his administration is likely to adopt a light regulatory approach for AI. High-profile venture capitalists and tech leaders backing Trump support a pro-growth agenda for AI, and this could lead to rapid advances in the sector with minimal regulatory obstacles. Musk’s dual interests in AI and crypto also suggest that these fields could flourish, benefiting from a regulatory environment that prioritizes innovation and market expansion.

Conclusion: A Mixed Future for Big Tech

Trump’s return to the White House offers distinct opportunities and challenges for Big Tech. While companies like Tesla and Google might benefit from a friendlier regulatory environment, others, including Apple and Amazon, face potential obstacles due to trade policies and supply chain vulnerabilities. The tech sector’s trajectory will depend on Trump’s approach and the willingness of tech leaders to align with his administration. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, with the industry poised to experience shifts that may redefine its landscape over the next four years.

How will a Trump presidency benefit Big Tech companies? Tell us what you think! 

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