With Hillary “calling in sick” during an ever tightening race, a Trump White House looks closer and closer every day. What does that mean for the markets?
How Long Will Clinton Lead Lead the Poll?
Election years are always interesting. But 2016 has been a whirlwind of a campaign for so many. Sanders. Carson. Cruz. Jeb. Kasich. Scott Walker. Rick Perry. Joe Biden ….
And then there were two. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
While Clinton was expected to be in the race, Trump is a true wild card. Initially, no one took The Donald seriously. Now, he is within striking distance of Hillary, who actually called in sick with a case of pneumonia – a bad sign for a future POTUS. The presidential race is now a coin toss, with Clinton’s lead dwindling day by day.
Here’s how the markets would react to President Trump.
The two remaining candidates have very different tax plans. Clinton’s plan proposes an increase – particularly to small businesses (by almost 50 percent!). Trump’s plan focuses on simplifies taxes across the board, especially for the middle class. The Donald pointed out that his tax plan would give workers an extra 40 percent in their paycheck, asking “what would you do with 40 percent more wealth?”.
Trump’s plan offers an opportunity for US citizens to have more money in their pocket, creating more spending, creating more job (and economic!) growth.
One of Donald Trump’s boldest plans is his healthcare platform.Trump hates Obamacare. He’s announced on several occasions that on day one of his presidency he will ask congress to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
So what does that look like?
Trump will base his healthcare reform on free market economy.principles. Insurance companies will no longer be able to segregate by state. People will be able to shop for the best insurance policy for them regardless of the state in which they reside, potentially saving buyers hundreds of dollars a month.
Even more impressive is how his health reform will tie into his economic plans. Donald Trump plans to allow individuals to fully deduct insurance premium payments from their tax returns under the current tax system. This bold move would ensure everyone would be able to afford insurance by allowing them to write off expenses. Additionally, individuals would be allowed to use tax free Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), which would be allowed to accumulate and become part of an individual’s estate, being passed down through generations with zero death or tax penalty.
Trump would also force price transparency for services, allowing price shopping between hospitals and clinics to save patients money. He would leave medicaid to the states, offering block grants instead of federal oversight, and remove barriers to entry for safe drug companies, offering more options to patients, and (again) saving everyone money. It all ties back to the economy for The Donald.
Thanks to the fiscal stimulus Trump would enact, markets would respond very positively. Trump plans to spend twice as much as Clinton on infrastructure. Combined with his massive tax cuts and healthcare reform, markets would see an influx of spending, with citizens having more money to spend. All of this would seriously strengthen the U.S. dollar – and the economy.
Watch CNN shares Clinton leads over Trump here!
With a Trump win, expect a bullish market. And a bullish economy.
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Wall Street Gave Campaign Donations
Biden Received $74M, Trump Received $18M
Despite enjoying one of the best bull runs in history, the market is looking forward to a new sheriff. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Biden is the chosen one. Wall Street gave campaign donations to Democrat Joe Biden $74 Million, while incumbent President Donald Trump got $18 million. This included contributions since 2019 and until the first two weeks of October.
Biden’s Wall Street Supporters
Joe Biden’s campaign is about to amass $1 billion in the remaining days before the election. Among the Democratic nominee’s supporters is former Goldman Sachs President Harvey Schwartz. He gave $100,000 this October to the Biden Action Fund and other various party fundraisers.
During the 3rd quarter, Wall Street investors lined up to support the Dems. Beginning last week, Biden, the DNC, and other committees received over $330 million. In comparison, Trump and the GOP received a total of $220 million.
Bigger than Obama, Smaller than Hillary’s
Biden’s Wall Street donations are larger than the total of Obama’s two runs for president. It falls short of Hillary Clinton’s $87 million hauls in her doomed 2016 run.
As early as January, the Biden campaign approached Wall Street hotshots for support. These included Evercore founder Roger Altman and investor Blair Effron, Blackstone CEO Jonathan Gray, former Citigroup exec Ray McGuire, Centerbridge Partners co-founder Mark Gallogly, and former U.S. Ambassador to France Jane Hartley. A lot of them hosted fundraising events or donated money.
Biden also got big money from supporters from Paloma Partners and Renaissance Technologies. Renaissance’s founder Jim Simons donated $7 million to two super Biden PACs way back in March. He added over $350,000 to the Biden Action Fund in June. Henry Laufer, Renaissance’s chief scientist, gave $625,000 in June to the American Bridge PAC. Meanwhile, Paloma Partners founder Donald Sussman gave $9 million to Biden’s super PACs. An added $20 million from other hedge funds and private equity firms rounded off the total.
Most Ever Spent by the Industry for an Election
This year, the investment community gave $625 million in contributions for election campaigns. This covers not only the presidential elections but also congressional and senate contests. It stands on record as the most ever spent by the finance and investment industry.
From the total, $370 million went to super PACs and groups allowed to raise infinite funds.
Democrats got the lion’s share at 63% while the GOP got 37%. $161 million went straight to Dem candidates, while $94 million went to Republicans. Compare it to 2016, where the GOP received half of Wall Street’s money.
Funding for the Dems remained high despite talks of pushbacks to big business. There is opposition within the camp in naming business leaders to the Biden cabinet. Progressives are vocal about not wanting their candidate to cozy up to the big business.
Jeff Hauser of the Revolving Door Project researched potential Biden Cabinet selections. He is “cautiously optimistic” that Wall Street’s funding can influence future appointees. Hauser does believe that the sector’s contributions can help open doors to the Biden White House. He voiced concerns about “conventional thinkers within the Biden world.” These people might insist on paying “deference to the source of that $75 million.”
Meanwhile in the White House
For Donald Trump, Wall Street isn’t as enamored if you look at the numbers. He received a paltry $20 million during his initial run for president. Four years later, donations to his cause are $2 million less. Analysts noted that many previous finance backers held back on the reelection campaign. These include people who gave millions during Trump’s 2017 inaugural.
Records show that previous supporters helped Republican Senate or House candidates instead. The market’s support for Trump waned due to his coronavirus response. Anonymous sources noted that investors backed off despite Trump’s tax and regulation cuts. Since they think Trump is about to lose, these leaders don’t want to invest in him further.
Trump donor Dan Eberhart said “Wall Street is watching the same polls as everyone else. They can see the direction the campaign is going and they are starting to alter their strategy.” He added that “It’s about risk management. If they can’t beat Biden, they know they are going to have to join him.”
Watch this as CNBC breaks down Wall Street campaign donations during the 2020 election:
With its contributions, Wall Street implied a decision to support Joe Biden. Should he eke a win, Wall Street will definitely look for returns on its investment. They should remember that this man won over progressives like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who aren’t exactly priority invites to ring the stock exchange opening bell. How do you think this will pay off for big money? Let us know what you think by sharing your thoughts in the comment section below.
Stocks Post Its Worst Day in A Month
Wall Street took a beating Monday as stocks posted its worst day in a month. Rising coronavirus cases and a fading stimulus relief led investors to sell-off.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.3% lower. It fell down 935 points during the day before settling 650 points lower. All Dow stocks closed in the red except Apple, which eked out a .01% gain. It was the Dow’s worst day since September 3.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed for the day at 1.9%, marking its worst day since late September. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which bounced back from its lows in the morning, finished lower at 1.6%.
While all sectors across the board experienced losses, some got crushed more. These include energy, industrials, and financials.
Higher Cases of Coronavirus
With eight days remaining before the elections, investors are starting to get jittery. Despite lots of talks, Congress has yet to approve a stimulus package. Cases of coronavirus are jumping in all states, and it recently hit a daily high average of 68,767 last Sunday.
Meanwhile, big tech companies are set to report earnings later this week. This lot includes Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Twitter. Fawad Razaqzada of Think Markets noted that the reports can inject further volatility. In the note, Think Markets believed that “on a more macro level, ongoing US stalemate over US fiscal stimulus and the rapidly spreading Covid-19 is going to determine the direction for the wider markets.”
Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, thinks Covid is a big influence over the market. He said “It’s almost as important as the Fed right now. Covid is suppressing the economy, and it’s essentially offsetting easy money. If we didn’t have Covid, people would be going out and spending money. It’s acting as a huge headwind.”
No Relief in Sight
Brad McMillan, CIO of Commonwealth Financial Network, thinks the reality hit investors hard. He told CNN business: “I think a big difference this time around [is]…there’s been a tremendous amount of hope baked into the market for quite a while, and we saw some things over this weekend that hit those assumptions hard.” The negotiations for a new relief package is gone at least until after the elections. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnel adjourned the Senate after confirming new Chief Justice Amy Coney Barrett. They will resume their session on November 9, or six days after the elections.
Without a clear stimulus plan, the US economy could start to double-dip. And if the rise in coronavirus cases continues, the business will shut down again. This nightmare scenario is haunting the market at present. Steven Wieting, the chief strategist at Citi Private Bank, sees dimmer prospects. “The ability to fight the virus further right now is very much in question, and it’s a political question.” Wieting believes that Washington could take months before anything gets done. This made investors tentative.
Tom Lee added that “We have a lot of things to be anxious about in the next couple of weeks. That’s why this is a pre-election market. But post-election, I think a lot of things that make people nervous turn into a tailwind. The post-election stimulus is a when not an if. Even if it’s a mixed Congress, I think there’s still some common ground. It’s just the scope that’s different. It would be a smaller package.”
Eight Days Remaining
The final eight days before the elections usually brings good vibes for Wall Street. This year, the bulls will need some extra running following Monday’s selloff spree.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist history, observed this bull phenomenon. Since 1944, the S&P 500 rose on average 2.5% in the eight days before elections. The index is up 17 out of 19 times, or 89%. The biggest rise came during the recent financial crisis, with the S&P 500 roaring back 18.5% in a bear market rally. That year, Democrat Barack Obama won over the GOP’s John McCain. The market sunk back to new lows after the election. It bottomed out four months later. The first decline in 1968 (-0.8%), happened as Richard Nixon won over Democrat Hubert Humphrey. The other was in 1988 when Republican George H.W. Bush won against the Dems’ Michael Dukakis.
Wall Street needs to get its act together with eight days remaining. A short, decisive victory by either party can help uplift America’s image. And with all the drama removed, maybe the market can go back to its winning ways.
Watch this as Stocks fall sharply at open amid Covid-19 resurgence:
Stock investors of The Capitalist, are you selling off right now, or are you holding off for a bigger payday? Do you think the market will rally in the next few days, or do you foresee better days after the elections? Share with us your stock scenarios as we count down to the elections. Leave your thoughts in the comment section below.
Market Volatility Rises As Election Polls Show Tightening Race
The relatively calm markets earlier this month are giving way to more volatility as we approach the election. This is according to a team of strategists at JPMorgan.
“While it is perhaps true that during the first two weeks of October risk markets were supported by a widening of US presidential odds, which by itself implied a lower probability of a close or contested US election result, over the past week or so these odds have started narrowing again,” said a team of strategists at JPMorgan Chase, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
According to recent polls by RealClearPolitics, in key battleground states, Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by 3.9 percentage points, 49.1 vs. 45.2. That lead has shrunk from a 5 percentage point advantage for Biden about a week ago.
A general election nationwide poll by RCP shows a wider 8.6 percentage-point lead for Biden. However, there are many who feel those polls are not correcting for sampling bias.
MarketWatch recently interviewed Phil Orlando, the chief equities strategist at Federated Hermes. There, he said he doesn’t believe the polls accurately reflect how close the race is. In relation to this, he pointed to the surprise win by Trump against Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“Our base case is that the polls are wrong, there’s an oversampling biased error that a lot of polls aren’t correcting for,” Orlando said.
With a tightening race for the White House, volatility has returned to the market. It will also likely increase in the final two weeks leading up to the election.
A report put out yesterday by SentimenTrader showed that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, jumped to levels last seen during the Great Financial Crisis, and tends to rise as stocks fall as it is typically used as a hedge against market downturns.
Market analysts use the ratio to measure how speculative traders are getting. A rise in the put/call ratio means that investors are expecting plenty of volatility between now and November 3.
The VIX, which measures investor bullish or bearishness on the S&P 500 for the next 30 days, is currently near 29, well above its historical average between 19 and 20. This week alone the VIX jumped 6.3%.
Source of Volatility
Jeffrey Mills, the chief investment officer at Bryn Mawr Trust, said some of the volatility likely comes from investors trying to position their portfolios based on who they perceive will win the election. “There could be some front-loaded selling but I do feel like that’s a near-term phenomenon,” he said. But he says no matter who wins, there’s really only one place to invest, and that’s the stock market.
“There is going to be this continued pull toward equity markets — where else are you going to go when you need to earn a certain percentage to fund retirement, fund education?”
If investors are moving money today based on who they think will win the election, Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Securities said each candidate will likely benefit different sectors.
A Biden victory will be good for stocks in the infrastructure, renewable energy and technology sectors, said Clifton.
If President Donald Trump is reelected, Clifton said there’s “huge upside” in some sectors. These include defense, financials and even the for-profits like prisons, education and student loan lenders.
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