Since the US economic expansion, we have felt many fears about the recession for the past 10 years. Financial markets have been discredited very quickly and disrupt our sense of security. This seems to be an unstoppable momentum that we face with trade fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and a global economic slowdown. This can cause us to distrust the financial system.
According to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Standley Wealth Management, it’s all about to change and predicts the odds of a recession in the US economy increasing rapidly. She has data to back it up.
She has a graph that depicts the New York Fed’s probability of a recession in the next 12 months ahead. She mentions that the measure has risen above 30% before every recession since the 1960s.
She recently wrote in her client note:
“Slowing global growth, inverted yield curves and weak credit and money supply growth are contributing to rising concerns that a recession could be in store as the expansion hits the midpoint of its 11th year,”