Is Trump a Genius? Top Economist Sees a Surprising Upside to the Trump Tariffs

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For months, economists warned that the Trump tariffs could drag the U.S. economy toward recession. Markets reacted sharply to President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, especially after his administration threatened rates exceeding 100% on foreign imports earlier this year. But with the 90-day pause on those tariffs nearing its end, some experts now believe Trump may have devised a strategy that benefits both the U.S. economy and global trade. Chief among them is Torsten Sløk, the top economist at Apollo Global Management, who boldly suggested that the administration’s next move might ease uncertainty while producing a windfall for U.S. taxpayers.

Could Trump’s Tariff Plan Actually Boost the Economy?

Sløk, who previously warned that Trump’s tariffs risked triggering a recession, laid out an alternative scenario this weekend. In his view, extending moderate tariffs for a longer period could lower uncertainty and stabilize business conditions.

“Maybe the strategy is to maintain 30% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on all other countries, then give all countries 12 months to lower non-tariff barriers and open up their economies to trade,” Sløk explained in his latest report.

That approach would avoid the worst-case scenario of sky-high tariffs while encouraging trade partners to negotiate. It also buys time for American businesses to adjust, reducing the risk of economic shocks.

Sløk argues this move would immediately calm market fears, boost business confidence, and support hiring. At the same time, it could deliver $400 billion in annual revenue for the U.S. government—a significant injection of funds without raising domestic taxes.

The Uncertainty Factor: Less Risk, More Revenue

Economic data shows that prolonged uncertainty weighs heavily on growth. A recent chart from Apollo illustrates how real GDP suffers more from permanent policy uncertainty than from short-term shocks. The faster businesses get clarity on tariffs, the less risk to the broader economy.

The 90-day pause on Trump tariffs was originally intended to give trade partners time to reach deals. While agreements have been reached with the U.K. and China, major talks with other countries, including Japan, India, and the EU, remain in progress.

Sløk believes that extending the deadline by another year provides breathing room to finalize those negotiations. That could prevent abrupt market disruptions while preserving leverage over foreign governments.

Markets Are Starting to See the Upside

Wall Street is also adjusting its outlook. Chris Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo Securities, predicts tariffs will settle in the 10% to 12% range, which is low enough to avoid serious damage but high enough to support revenue goals.

Harvey remains bullish on stocks, projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,007 next year if trade uncertainty diminishes. The Fed, meanwhile, remains divided on how tariffs will influence inflation, with some officials favoring rate cuts as early as July.

Despite lingering risks, both Sløk and Harvey suggest that Trump’s tariff strategy may be more calculated than critics assumed. By using moderate, long-term tariffs as leverage, the administration could strengthen the U.S. position in global trade without the severe economic fallout many feared.

With the next tariff deadline approaching, investors and policymakers alike are watching closely to see whether this strategy delivers the promised benefits or if new tensions will reignite market volatility.

Given Sløk’s analysis of the Trump tariffs, do you think that President Trump is actually a genius tactician? Tell us what you think

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