What, Me Worry? Bessent Says It’s Not Guaranteed That We’ll Have a U.S. Recession

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has refused to promise that a U.S. recession will happen. He said on Sunday that there are no guarantees about the country's economic future. Speaking on NBC’s Meet the Press, Bessent defended the Trump administration’s economic policies and argued that they are necessary to prevent a financial crisis. He pointed to excessive government spending under past administrations as a key factor in the country’s current economic challenges.

His remarks come as consumer confidence continues to slide, and market volatility raises concerns about whether the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn. Many Americans are skeptical about Bessent’s assurances, especially as the administration grapples with slowing growth, rising debt, and economic uncertainty tied to Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

Is a U.S. Recession on the Horizon?

Despite dismissing the idea of an imminent recession, Bessent acknowledged that the economic transition under Trump’s policies will not be painless. He noted that the administration is working to wean the country off massive government spending but avoided making any firm predictions on whether these efforts will trigger a recession.

This uncertainty comes as J.P. Morgan’s chief economist warns that the U.S. has a 40% chance of entering a recession in 2025. Meanwhile, an NBC News poll shows that 54% of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, which raises concerns about public confidence in his administration’s economic strategy.

Adding to market jitters, Bessent insisted that last week’s stock market correction, which saw the S&P 500 fall over 10% from its February peak, was normal and healthy. However, investors are wary of the potential impact of Trump’s escalating trade tensions with the European Union, as tariffs threaten to raise costs and slow economic growth.

Trump's Economic Policies Face Growing Scrutiny

President Donald Trump himself has been reluctant to predict the economy’s future. Speaking to Fox News last week, he said he hates to predict things like that when asked about the risk of a U.S. recession. Instead, he emphasized that the country is in a period of transition as his administration restructures economic policy.

One of the administration’s most aggressive moves has been the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk, which is tasked with reducing the size of the federal workforce. While Trump claims these measures will put the economy on a sustainable path, others argue that mass layoffs and spending cuts could weaken consumer demand and push the economy into a downturn.

Bessent maintains that these changes are necessary to prevent a financial crisis, stating that what he could guarantee is the country would have had a financial crisis if it had stayed on the previous track. But with debt levels still rising, skepticism remains about whether the administration’s policies will truly stabilize the economy.

The Market's Response and Public Sentiment

The stock market’s sharp selloff last week reflects the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic strategy. While Bessent insists that corrections are normal, investors remain concerned about the long-term impact of Trump's economic policies, particularly his tariff threats, deregulation push, and cuts to government programs.

Many Americans are also feeling uneasy. Consumer confidence has taken a hit, and some fear that Trump's economic reset may come at a cost. The administration has framed its policies as a necessary course correction, but critics argue that reducing government spending too aggressively could stall growth and lead to economic hardship.

With no clear guarantees, the debate over a potential U.S. recession continues. While Bessent and Trump remain optimistic, the markets and the American public are less convinced.

Do you believe Bessent when he says there are no guarantees that a U.S. recession is coming? Tell us what you think!

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