Wall Street Futures Stay Flat As Investors Await Resumption of US-China Trade Talks

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Wall Street futures hovered near flat on Monday as investors braced for renewed U.S.–China trade talks in London. The cautious pace of trading reflects uncertainty over whether officials from both countries can restore momentum after weeks of rising tension. A durable agreement could lift equities further, while failure may trigger renewed volatility.

Last month’s preliminary agreement in Geneva had briefly eased friction between the two nations. But recent accusations from both sides about violations of the truce have cooled expectations. Investors now look to the second round of negotiations for signs that a more durable deal is possible. A breakthrough could reinforce the market’s recent gains, while failure may trigger renewed volatility.

Equities Hold Gains, But Caution Creeps In

Last week, all three major indexes closed higher for the second week in a row. The S&P 500 broke past 6,000 on Friday for the first time since February, lifted by a strong May jobs report and a rebound in Tesla shares. The Nasdaq and Dow also posted solid weekly gains, pushing year-to-date returns back into positive territory for the first time in months.

Still, Wall Street futures movement on Monday signaled a wait-and-see attitude. S&P 500 E-minis rose just 0.07%, Dow E-minis added 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.03%. Most megacap and growth stocks showed mixed performance in early trading, and headline risks remained elevated.

Tesla shares fell over 2% following a downgrade by Baird. Robinhood Markets dropped 5% after failing to join the S&P 500 during the latest index reshuffle. Meanwhile, Sunnova Energy’s Chapter 11 filing sent its stock plummeting 37%, raising broader concerns about debt-heavy firms under current interest rate conditions.

Key Indicators on Deck This Week

Investors are also eyeing several important data releases. May’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) reports are expected to provide critical insight into whether inflation is stabilizing. The data will shape expectations heading into the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 meeting.

While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this time, Wall Street futures markets now price in nearly two rate cuts by year-end. Traders expect the first cut as early as September. That outlook could shift, however, if tariff-related inflation pressures begin to surface more clearly.

Citigroup joined other major brokerages in raising its year-end target for the S&P 500. Citing resilience in corporate earnings and the expanding role of AI in productivity, it now projects the index finishing at 6,300, up from a prior forecast of 5,800. The target reflects both economic durability and an assumption that policymakers will avoid aggressive tightening as trade tensions flare.

Event-Driven Moves to Watch

In addition to macroeconomic data and trade talks, this week features a number of market-moving events. Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference begins Monday, with updates on AI initiatives expected to influence both tech sentiment and chipmaker valuations. Quarterly earnings from Oracle, GameStop, Victoria’s Secret, and RH could test sector-specific outlooks across retail and software.

Beyond that, the Trump administration’s tariff decisions remain a wildcard. While hopes for compromise persist, any new trade actions could reprice risk across multiple sectors. Investors will be monitoring any signals from the London talks for clarity.

Despite external pressures, many view the recent rebound in U.S. equities as a sign of investor confidence in underlying fundamentals. But with Wall Street futures largely stagnant ahead of the week’s news cycle, market participants appear unwilling to chase gains without confirmation.

Are Wall Street futures reflecting caution or signaling confidence about trade and rate policy this summer? Tell us what you think.

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