Connect with us


Weak US Dollar Poised to Rebound This Year



Dollar vs euro. Business man in suit holding 50 banknote and bill in both currency in hand-weak us dollar-ss-featured

Signs are showing that the weak US dollar is poised to rebound this year. Bank of America strategists led by  Athanasios Vamvakidis boosted their forecast for the US currency on Tuesday. They expect the currently weak US dollar to grow stronger and trade 1.15 dollars to 1 euro by the end of 2021. Meanwhile Wall Street forecast the exchange rate to grow even higher at $1.25:€1. 

RELATED: Goldman Sachs’ Advice: Investors to Short the Dollar Now

A stronger euro/weaker US dollar rate means a weaker US currency. Right now, the euro trades at 1.20, which is 3 cents lower than the start of the year. Bank of America expects the greenback to rise, but now they see it happening sooner than later.  Bank of America gave five reasons the dollar will strengthen sooner. 

The Gap Between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank 

After pumping billions of dollars into the economy last year, the Federal Reserve is winding down on its easy policy stance. Some officials want the Fed to go easy on asset purchases. However, the Fed denied premature tightening, but mixed communication is showing signs of policy normalization as early as next year. 

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is weathering intense rhetoric against Euro strength in recent weeks. An upcoming strategic review of how the ECB can achieve its inflation target will show its strategy. “The bottom line is that the ECB will be moving towards more easing, while the Fed will be looking towards policy normalization,” the BofA said.

Incoming Stimulus Boost

The Biden administration is pulling out all the stops in pushing to pass its $1.9 trillion stimulus package, the American Rescue Plan. By using the reconciliation process, Democrats in Congress won’t need a majority to get the bill passed. The dollar will definitely take a hit with such a large amount flooding the market. In addition, it also increases the risk of earlier policy normalization by the Fed. Long term, the stimulus package should boost the dollar's strength. 

Across the pond, European Union fiscal policy is “not as supportive and if anything could be tightened too early,” the team said.

Vaccine-Spurred Growth

With widespread vaccination happening all across the world, the global economy expects to rebound within the year. Still, Bank of America expects US growth to beat the EU’s pace easily. 

BofA projects US growth of 6% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2021. Meanwhile, they see the EU grow by 2.9% this year and 3.4% next year. In addition, US inflation projects to come in above EU price growth. The US decoupling from the EU in terms of the economy should support the dollar going stronger. 

Shorting the Dollar

Outside of meme stocks, the US dollar could also face a massive short squeeze. Despite the currency’s recent rally, the market continues to short the dollar. If projections are correct and the US economy outpaces the EU’s, the euro-dollar trade will likely cut into long positions and strengthen the dollar, the strategists said.

Safe Haven

A reversal from the risk-on party that pushed stocks is about to happen, which will push investors into holding on to cash positions. Bank of America expects risk assets positioning to peak by the first quarter. They also expect limits to policy support the following quarter. Analysts expect a 10% market correction sometime this year and dampen investor demand for stocks.

Assets already at record highs will leave little space for more upside. The vaccination’s slow pace will take years to complete. The long path to recovery should push the dollar upwards in the near term, according to Bank of America.  “A more challenging outlook for risk assets this year also suggests a less clear foreign-exchange picture and upside USD risks,” BofA strategists said.

Watch the Wall Street Journal video special on Why the U.S. Dollar Remains Strong:

Do you think the dollar will grow stronger versus the euro this year?

Please Select One:

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Do you agree that the weak US dollar will get stronger later? Or, do you think the dollar will remain weaker due to outside pressure such as stimulus money flooding the market? Let us know what you think. Share your opinions in the comment section below.



  • Anonymous says:

    Slow Joe fool lib policy will ruin the economy he has already made numerous detrimental changes that has cost thousands of jobs,also opening the border is foolish

  • CM says:

    Debasing the currency through hyper-inflation from too much stimulus money and forced job stagnation will kill the dollar (which is the intention). The only people getting rich this year is China, Biden-Harris, Big Pharma and the techoligarchs. You want to know what’s happening, follow the money all the way to the “Great Reset”.

  • BS says:

    Joe will give all our money to people crossing the border add get them to vote dem party instead of taking care of the millions that are here already. he is going to ruin this country because he is a joke. raising min. wage across USA and we our going to pay $3 or more for gas and everything we buy will double. we as a strong country will become very weak and broke. this guy is a joke and vise president has no clue on anything. but they stole the election, that’s real like it or not were doomed!!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Copyright © 2023 The Capitalist. his copyrighted material may not be republished without express permission. The information presented here is for general educational purposes only. MATERIAL CONNECTION DISCLOSURE: You should assume that this website has an affiliate relationship and/or another material connection to the persons or businesses mentioned in or linked to from this page and may receive commissions from purchases you make on subsequent web sites. You should not rely solely on information contained in this email to evaluate the product or service being endorsed. Always exercise due diligence before purchasing any product or service. This website contains advertisements.

Is THE newsletter for…


Stay up-to-date with the latest kick-ass interviews, podcasts, and more as we cover a wide range of topics, in the world of finance and technology. Don't miss out on our exclusive content featuring expert opinions and market insights delivered to your inbox 100% FREE!